The demise of the TV commercial and the stubborn facts.
It's the rare week that a media pundit doesn't sound the death knell for the 30-second TV commercial. But like last time, and the time before that, all we have here is an obituary. We can't seem to find the body. That's because TV advertising is arguably healthier than ever. But don't take my word for it: Let's review some reliable data from four reliable sources:
Universal McCann's authoritative annual media report shows that national TV spending continues to dwarf every other national medium:
(Yes, broadcast is soft and cable is gaining, but what real difference does that make? It's a distinction that only we in the advertising business care about.)
The WPP annual report contains an exhibit of "hours-per-year-per-medium consumed" projected to 2008. Here are some of the data, but check the full exhibit at the WPP site. As you can see, TV is the medium that we consume the most, and by quite a margin. But what's surprising, even to me, is that the time we spend watching TV in the absolute will increase faster than the rest, including the internet.
IAG research reports that TV time-shifting and place shifting are growing facts of life, what with: TiVo, Slingbox, iPods, In2TV, TV on DVD, CW, MyNetworkTV, IPTV, and VOD. Also important, especially to those charged with writing media plans: IAG estimates that 90% of TV viewing continues to be "as it airs." Should we expect this number to diminish? Most definitely. Should we expect that most TV viewing will continue to be "as it airs?" The betting here is that we should.
OK, What about the much abused 30 second TV commercial? According to Initiative Media: 55% of all units on Broadcast TV are 30's; on Cable TV, 57% of all units are 30's; on Spot TV, it's 76%. That adds up to a lot of 30's. (In my experience, 30 seconds buys you about 75 spoken words; combine that with moving pictures and you can still tell a pretty good story.)
So, are the pundits correct about the imminent demise of TV advertising or the 30 second commercial? No, they're not even close. The stubborn facts point to a robust life for some time to come. But is this the entire story? Of course it's not.
The media world is going through a period of exciting innovation. Some innovations will make it; many will not. As an advertising medium, the internet has obviously made it, and is having transformative impact. For those businesses where detailed content is key to making the sale, the combination of TV and Internet adds up to a whole much bigger than the sum of the two parts.
